Week 11 Picksheet

  🏈Week 11 College Football Picks 🏈

Happy election day. Sports and politics are basically twins separated at birth. Think about it: both are fueled by over-the-top loyalty, wild rivalries, and fans who are absolutely convinced that their team—or party—has the only correct playbook. In both, a strong defense (or excuse-making, take your pick) can be just as important as a winning offense. You've got big, dramatic "huddle-ups" (team meetings or congressional sessions) where everyone pretends to agree, only to go out and argue with each other anyway. And no matter the outcome, half of the people walk away heartbroken, while the other half gloat like they personally scored every touchdown. So, whether you're cheering for your team or backing a candidate, just remember: everyone's yelling, nobody's really listening, and at the end of the day, we're all just hoping to win a couple bets. 

I am adding in the color coded differential column. This column is how many points of margin the model is saying there is between the simulated outcome (differential) and the opening spread. In order to gamble at a high-level, you need to get bets in on Sundays when the line opens up. Good luck this weekend and as always, gamble responsibly.  

A couple games I am really looking forward to: 

Georgia @ Ole Miss: Huge playoff implications for both teams. Check out the matchup tool below. These teams are incredibly close from a data perspective. My gut tells me Kirby Smart is a better big game coach, especially when its not Alabama. Give me Georgia ML -137. 

Alabama @ LSU: Huge playoff implications for both teams. 

🏈Match Up Tool: Georgia @ Ole Miss 🏈

🏈Week 11 Best Bets🏈 

Iowa -5.5 @ UCLA: This line has already moved. Get in on it early. The model would tell you that Iowa should win this by 14.9 points, which means there is ~9 points of cushion to the line.  

Army -3.5 @ North Texas* Contingent on healthy QB for Army

Liberty -9.5 @ MTSU: Liberty faced the ultimate heartbreak losing to Kennesaw State. Still have a chance to win their conference.  

Pittsburgh -7.5 vs. Virginia. SMU bullied Pittsburgh last week. 

🏈Week 11 Picksheet 🏈 

Week 10 Recap

  🏈 Week 10 College Football Recap🏈

The Model hit at a 50% rate, which is the equivalent of kissing your sister as the odds would tell you that Vegas made their money on the juice they take on each bet. On the year, the model is running at ~53%, so we are in the green. However, the model results are largely irrelevant because if you follow me on Instagram, I put you on absolute winners. Gamble responsibly. The changes in college football are starting to show. Parity is at an all-time high, for better or for worse.  

There are still 4 teams that have an actual chance at winning: Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Georgia. Everyone else is there as eye candy. The drop-off after these four is significant.. What if we went back to a 4-team playoff????? Now, let's dive into the games that mattered (to me):

Ohio State @ Penn State: What an ugly dogfight. Penn State and James Franklin continue their spell of producing mediocre football on the biggest stage. On the contrary, this may be the biggest win of Ryan Day's regular season career. Ohio State FINALLY established the run game and their defense is good enough to win them a national championship. 

Florida @ Georgia: I hear it from so many SEC fans about how this is a superior conference given their top heavy dominance. I'd put the top two team from the Big10 up against their top 2 any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Georgia got absolutely bailed out from a bad snap from Florida. This was a 20-20 game in the 4th quarter.  

Vanderbilt @ Auburn: A battle between my wife & I. I'm not proud of what happened, but it needed to be done. While I do not allow Auburn slander most weeks, it's time to tell the truth. Auburn football needs to burn the stadium down and start from scratch. They should consider dropping Coach Hoppa (women's soccer coach) into the seat. She has won the conference 9 times and made 17 NCAA tournament appearances. At a minimum, she should interview the next football coach as she clearly KNOWS BALL.  

Oregon @ Michigan: Dan Lanning is the real deal. LEGIT contender.

Louisville @ Clemson: Louisville may go down as the most confusing team of the year. They absolutely spoiled Clemson's chances at the CFP. Where does Dabo go from here? 

Texas A&M @ South Carolina: This was stunning. A&M (leading the SEC) has just made sure to make their path to the playoffs extremely hard on themselves. 

  💰Ty's Best Bets of The Weekend 💰(3/5)

Ole Miss -6.5: This line was honestly disrespectful to Lane Kiffin and he took it out on Arkansas putting up 63 points. On the contrary, their defense couldn't stop a nosebleed. Huge week for them vs. Georgia.  💰

Ohio State ML: Any recent history would tell you the James Franklin gets dominated by the buckeyes. We should have an honest conversation about if Penn State's "White Out" should even be considered Home Field Advantage 💰

Indiana -7.5: These guys are absolute cover machines. Likely rolling this train vs. Michigan next week💰

Kansas State -10.5: The data was there, but just remember that these are kids. They have class on Monday. 🚫

Pittsburg +7.5 @ SMU: Wow. SMU looked incredible. 🚫

Parlay Recap (0/3):

🚫 +435: Memphis -6.5🚫, Army -21.5 🚫, Kansas State -12.5 🚫 - It's hard to be this wrong.  

🚫+1041: Georgia -11.5, Indiana -5.5 💰, Marshall ML 💰, Over 38.5 UCLA/ Nebraska 💰, Navy -10.5 🚫 - this parlay is under protest as the game was delayed multiple times with zero communication and no cash-out option. 

🚫 +256: Indiana -6.5💰, Kansas State -10.5  🚫

                                                    Week 10 Pick Sheet W/ Results:

Hit at 50% this week. 53% for the last few weeks. The model sucks for Tuesday & Wednesday games.