Week 9 Picksheet

 🏈  Week 9 College Football Picks 🏈

Pick Sheet: Located in the bottom of the post. We have 56 games this week with some meaningful conference match-ups. Ranked match-ups are light this week as we have been spoiled. 

BIG10: Illinois @ Oregon 

SEC:  LSU @ Texas A&M 

ACC: Not worth watching any of these pillow fights.   

Other: Boise State @ UNLV, Notre Dame @ Navy (17 point 🐕)

Dislocation; In week 7, games with a spread differential greater than 4, won at a 75% rate. In Week 8, they won at a 62.5% rate. This week, we have 14 games with these characteristics (excluding the Tuesday night games).  I will be putting money on every single one of these games. I will admit that Michigan/ Michigan State scares me. I'm 0-3 when picking Michigan this year. Utah to cover -3.5 is the biggest dislocation play this week. 

 Games With Spread Differential > 4

Match Up Tool: Boise State @ UNLV

This is a huge match up in the Mountain West. Both teams have improved over the course of the year and UNLV has had plenty of drama with the QB being an absolute DIVA. While the model tells you to take UNLV to cover the 3.5 spread, I believe that Boise State will run these guys into the ground. I am planning to take Boise to cover and alt. -2.5 spread, which is where this game opened up.  

Week 9 Pick Sheet

Week 8 Recap & SP+ Betting Results

 🏈  Week 8 College Football Recap🏈

Another incredible week of college football is behind us. I lost a ton of money and won slightly more (thanks Duke, Oregon, Indiana, SMU, Vanderbilt, Army and Purdue covering an alt. spread of 35.5), putting me in the green for the third straight week. The model won at a 56.9% rate, beating Vegas once again (chart below to show you its dominance). I'd also like to give a shoutout to Army and Navy for absolutely dominating the college football game while running an offense from 1964. 

Lets dive into the games that I was locked in on:

Indiana vs. Nebraska: What an absolute beatdown Indian put on the Huskers, who looked like a mediocre division 5 JV squad. While I think this Indiana story is fun, they haven't played anyone (wins against powerhouse FIU, Western IL, UCLA, Charlotte, Maryland, Northwestern, and now Nebraska. 

Texas vs. Georgia: Proof that fans throwing bottles on the field can get you a call. Makes you wonder why Jerimiah Smith was called on OPI vs. Oregon, but my bias is showing. Texas is still a very good team, as is Georgia. These are two of the four teams (Ohio State & Oregon) that legitimately have a chance at winning the CFP. Everyone else is just gathering a participation trophy. 

Tennessee vs. Alabama: Nico needed his bell rung and a trip to the locker room before he awoke from his coma and started playing good football again. For everyone who gave me 💩 for not putting Alabama in my pre-season playoff predictions... Hate to say I told you so. I don't actually hate it, but you get the point. 

Louisville vs. Miami: I have been an open hater on the ACC this season, and I promise you that it will continue. The defenses in this conference are soft. This was still an exciting game with 97 points scored. Imagine liking soccer with scores of 1-0 being the norm. 

Games With Spread Differential > 4

For the 16 games I highlighted with a spread differential greater than 4... 10 out of the 16 covered the spread. For those who can't do division in their heads (because you didn't graduate from an incredible academic & football institution like Vanderbilt), that's a 62.5% win rate. Will keep highlighting these anomalies in the data as I find them. 

Week 8 Pick Sheet W/ Results: