🏈 College Football Week 7 SP+ Model Predictions Against The Spread 🏈:
How To Read: The Differential tab will tell you how each game is predicted to end based on a teams SP+ score vs. its opponent.
For Example: Liberty is Hosting FIU on Tuesday Night. Liberty's SP+ score is +3.3, meaning they are 3.3 points than the average college football team. FIU's SP+ score is -15.6, meaning they are 15.6 points worse than the average college football team. The differential between the SP+ scores is calculated by taking the home team SP+ (-) Away Team SP+ and adjusting for 3 additional points for home field advantage. Formula: 3.3 (-) -15.6 + 3 = 21.9. According to SP+, Liberty should win this game by 21.9 points. The existing point spread on FanDuel is Liberty -19.5. Given Liberty should beat this spread by 2.4 points, the pick is Liberty.
Another Example: Jacksonville State (SP+ of -11.5) should beat New Mexico State by 12.8 points. The current FanDuel spread is -19.5. Thus, New Mexico State should cover this spread and they have 6.7 points worth of coverage.
I am planning to track all games this week where I could find an opening line. I will post the results of this prediction model next Sunday(10/13). Last week's sample set of data hit at a 58.6% clip (results below).
Vegas Spreads are subject to change. Gamble at your own risk.
Week 6 Prediction Results:
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