Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Week 12 Picks

  πŸˆWeek 12 College Football Picks πŸˆ

The B1G is dominating college football and for good reason. Playoff bracket came out last night and Miami is the most overrated team I've ever seen. Indiana fans are mad because they want credit for playing the softest schedule in college football.    

Only one huge matchup this week: Tennessee (+10.5) @ Georgia. Georgia completely let me down last week, which means I won't bet them, which means they'll win, which means I'll lose, which means I'll take Georgia to cover, which means I've faded myself, which means I'm completely staying away from this game. 

Other games to keep on your radar: Colorado (-10.5) hosting Utah. Colorado has a real path at the playoffs and they control their destiny. The conflicting style of play for Utah will be a good test. BYU (-2.5) hosting Kansas. People hat on Kansas all of the time.. I think if you zoom out a couple years, to see what they have built is pretty remarkable. Will be a good game. Boston College (+16.5) @ SMU. SMU has officially made their case that they belong in the ACC (which is very soft/ bad). Bill O'Brien is building something special at BC and I'd like to believe it's inside of 16 points. 

Games I love: 

Missouri +13.5 @ South Carolina. South Carolina's magic is over. Can Missouri show an ounce of fight in this game and finish the season with some pride?

Liberty -13.5 @ UMASS.  


  πŸˆMatch Up Tool: Tennessee (+10.5) @ Georgia πŸˆ




🏈Week 12 Picksheet🏈








Sunday, November 10, 2024

Week 11 College Football Recap

  πŸˆ Week 11 College Football Recap🏈

THE ACC IS TRASH. If I'm on the committee, I'm having a big boy conversation about excluding every single one of these teams from the playoffs. I'd much rather see Colorado sneak in than any of the teams in this sorry conference. Ohio State handled business as they should. Ole Miss with a gutsy win over Georgia. Oregon limps through Maryland. Brian Kelly should be on the hot seat (still can't believe they fired Coach O). First chink in the armor for undefeated Indiana. Vanderbilt has been a fun story, but it's officially over. Michigan is on pace for the worst season ever after winning a National Championship........ Makes you wonder if the cheating allegations were real.......

The Model is recovering after I tweaked the algorithm (yeah, I know math... when I have excel). It hit at a 58% clip this week. Taking money from Vegas is my favorite hobby. 

Where Ty Was Right:

Liberty. 

Army.

Navy. 

Where Ty Was Wrong: It takes a real man to admit it

Georgia. Carson Beck isn't that guy. Put some respect on Stetson Bennet. 

Iowa. This game hurt me to watch and I'm proud to say I fell asleep in the 2nd quarter and woke up at midnight to see this result.  

πŸ’»Model Results by WeekπŸ’»


🏈Week 11 Pick Sheet Results🏈



Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Week 11 Picksheet

  πŸˆWeek 11 College Football Picks πŸˆ

Happy election day. Sports and politics are basically twins separated at birth. Think about it: both are fueled by over-the-top loyalty, wild rivalries, and fans who are absolutely convinced that their team—or party—has the only correct playbook. In both, a strong defense (or excuse-making, take your pick) can be just as important as a winning offense. You've got big, dramatic "huddle-ups" (team meetings or congressional sessions) where everyone pretends to agree, only to go out and argue with each other anyway. And no matter the outcome, half of the people walk away heartbroken, while the other half gloat like they personally scored every touchdown. So, whether you're cheering for your team or backing a candidate, just remember: everyone's yelling, nobody's really listening, and at the end of the day, we're all just hoping to win a couple bets. 

I am adding in the color coded differential column. This column is how many points of margin the model is saying there is between the simulated outcome (differential) and the opening spread. In order to gamble at a high-level, you need to get bets in on Sundays when the line opens up. Good luck this weekend and as always, gamble responsibly.  

A couple games I am really looking forward to: 

Georgia @ Ole Miss: Huge playoff implications for both teams. Check out the matchup tool below. These teams are incredibly close from a data perspective. My gut tells me Kirby Smart is a better big game coach, especially when its not Alabama. Give me Georgia ML -137. 

Alabama @ LSU: Huge playoff implications for both teams. 

🏈Match Up Tool: Georgia @ Ole Miss πŸˆ

🏈Week 11 Best Bets🏈 

Iowa -5.5 @ UCLA: This line has already moved. Get in on it early. The model would tell you that Iowa should win this by 14.9 points, which means there is ~9 points of cushion to the line.  

Army -3.5 @ North Texas* Contingent on healthy QB for Army

Liberty -9.5 @ MTSU: Liberty faced the ultimate heartbreak losing to Kennesaw State. Still have a chance to win their conference.  

Pittsburgh -7.5 vs. Virginia. SMU bullied Pittsburgh last week. 

🏈Week 11 Picksheet πŸˆ 



Sunday, November 3, 2024

Week 10 Recap

  πŸˆ Week 10 College Football Recap🏈

The Model hit at a 50% rate, which is the equivalent of kissing your sister as the odds would tell you that Vegas made their money on the juice they take on each bet. On the year, the model is running at ~53%, so we are in the green. However, the model results are largely irrelevant because if you follow me on Instagram, I put you on absolute winners. Gamble responsibly. The changes in college football are starting to show. Parity is at an all-time high, for better or for worse.  

There are still 4 teams that have an actual chance at winning: Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Georgia. Everyone else is there as eye candy. The drop-off after these four is significant.. What if we went back to a 4-team playoff????? Now, let's dive into the games that mattered (to me):

Ohio State @ Penn State: What an ugly dogfight. Penn State and James Franklin continue their spell of producing mediocre football on the biggest stage. On the contrary, this may be the biggest win of Ryan Day's regular season career. Ohio State FINALLY established the run game and their defense is good enough to win them a national championship. 

Florida @ Georgia: I hear it from so many SEC fans about how this is a superior conference given their top heavy dominance. I'd put the top two team from the Big10 up against their top 2 any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Georgia got absolutely bailed out from a bad snap from Florida. This was a 20-20 game in the 4th quarter.  

Vanderbilt @ Auburn: A battle between my wife & I. I'm not proud of what happened, but it needed to be done. While I do not allow Auburn slander most weeks, it's time to tell the truth. Auburn football needs to burn the stadium down and start from scratch. They should consider dropping Coach Hoppa (women's soccer coach) into the seat. She has won the conference 9 times and made 17 NCAA tournament appearances. At a minimum, she should interview the next football coach as she clearly KNOWS BALL.  

Oregon @ Michigan: Dan Lanning is the real deal. LEGIT contender.

Louisville @ Clemson: Louisville may go down as the most confusing team of the year. They absolutely spoiled Clemson's chances at the CFP. Where does Dabo go from here? 

Texas A&M @ South Carolina: This was stunning. A&M (leading the SEC) has just made sure to make their path to the playoffs extremely hard on themselves. 

  πŸ’°Ty's Best Bets of The Weekend πŸ’°(3/5)

Ole Miss -6.5: This line was honestly disrespectful to Lane Kiffin and he took it out on Arkansas putting up 63 points. On the contrary, their defense couldn't stop a nosebleed. Huge week for them vs. Georgia.  πŸ’°

Ohio State ML: Any recent history would tell you the James Franklin gets dominated by the buckeyes. We should have an honest conversation about if Penn State's "White Out" should even be considered Home Field Advantage πŸ’°

Indiana -7.5: These guys are absolute cover machines. Likely rolling this train vs. Michigan next weekπŸ’°

Kansas State -10.5: The data was there, but just remember that these are kids. They have class on Monday. πŸš«

Pittsburg +7.5 @ SMU: Wow. SMU looked incredible. πŸš«

Parlay Recap (0/3):

🚫 +435: Memphis -6.5🚫, Army -21.5 πŸš«, Kansas State -12.5 πŸš« - It's hard to be this wrong.  

🚫+1041: Georgia -11.5, Indiana -5.5 πŸ’°, Marshall ML πŸ’°, Over 38.5 UCLA/ Nebraska πŸ’°, Navy -10.5 πŸš« - this parlay is under protest as the game was delayed multiple times with zero communication and no cash-out option. 

🚫 +256: Indiana -6.5πŸ’°, Kansas State -10.5  πŸš«





                                                    Week 10 Pick Sheet W/ Results:

Hit at 50% this week. 53% for the last few weeks. The model sucks for Tuesday & Wednesday games. 



Monday, October 28, 2024

Week 10 College Football Picks

  πŸˆWeek 10 College Football Picks πŸˆ

We are back early this week as the opening lines are the way to play. The model has been recalibrated. We are locked in. 

BIG10: Ohio State @ Penn State. I am so sick of hearing about how good Penn State is. People always seem to forget that history repeats itself. Since 2006, Penn State has won this game 3 times and only one of them was at home. 

SEC: Nothing of great interest 

ACC: Pittsburgh @ SMU

🧠No Brainer Picks🧠



Match Up Tool: Ole Miss @ Arkansas



Week 10 Pick Sheet



Sunday, October 27, 2024

Week 9 College Football Recap

 πŸˆ Week 9 College Football Recap🏈

Just a reminder, that it is baseball season. Dodgers took game 1 in a scenario that all kids dream about. Bottom 10, down 1, bases loaded, bottom of the 10th, world series, GRAND SLAM. In game two, the Dodgers rolled. Aaron Judge has been miserable in the postseason.. If the Yankees want any chance, he better get going. 

Another great weekend of football. Good for Kennesaw State for getting their first FBS win... On the flip side of this, Liberty threw their shot at the playoffs in the trash.  The model had an atrocious weekend hitting at only 42%. However, my cucumber marTYni parlay hit along with Boise State and BYU outright keeping me in the green. 

LSU @ Texas A&M - Think special teams don't matter?????? Think again. Pivotal moment that swung the game on the miscue on the fumbled field goal snap. Brian Kelly can't figure it out. Texas A&M male cheerleaders freak me out

BYU @ UCF - was absolutely disgraceful that BYU was an underdog. BYU can absolutely run the football and they did just that on every single down. Time to start taking notice of the Stormin' Mormons. 

Nebraska @ Ohio State - Great teams find ways to win ugly. Ohio State needs to get the run game established early and often. You paid too much money for this team to let a team like Nebraska hang around. I want Mike Vrabel as the coach for the Buckeyes yesterday. There's something about Day that doesn't breathe confidence into this team. 

Boise State @ UNLV - I try to tell you guys what I see, when I see it. What a game. Boise State is well on the path to get to the playoffs. 

Notre Dame @ Navy - For a group of patriotic men who want to spend the next few years out on the sea defending our country (massive respect & thank you for everything), Navy got absolutely BOATRACED. No surprise that Navy had a problem controlling the ground game... They leave that work to the Army.

Games With Spread Differential > 4


Bonus: Cucumber MarTYni Parlay


Model Trends:
Overall win rate still beating Vegas (53%). Tough Week 9 at 41%. 


Week 9 Pick Sheet Results:


Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Week 9 Picksheet

 πŸˆ  Week 9 College Football Picks πŸˆ

Pick Sheet: Located in the bottom of the post. We have 56 games this week with some meaningful conference match-ups. Ranked match-ups are light this week as we have been spoiled. 

BIG10: Illinois @ Oregon 

SEC:  LSU @ Texas A&M 

ACC: Not worth watching any of these pillow fights.   

Other: Boise State @ UNLV, Notre Dame @ Navy (17 point πŸ•)

Dislocation; In week 7, games with a spread differential greater than 4, won at a 75% rate. In Week 8, they won at a 62.5% rate. This week, we have 14 games with these characteristics (excluding the Tuesday night games).  I will be putting money on every single one of these games. I will admit that Michigan/ Michigan State scares me. I'm 0-3 when picking Michigan this year. Utah to cover -3.5 is the biggest dislocation play this week. 

 Games With Spread Differential > 4


Match Up Tool: Boise State @ UNLV

This is a huge match up in the Mountain West. Both teams have improved over the course of the year and UNLV has had plenty of drama with the QB being an absolute DIVA. While the model tells you to take UNLV to cover the 3.5 spread, I believe that Boise State will run these guys into the ground. I am planning to take Boise to cover and alt. -2.5 spread, which is where this game opened up.  


Week 9 Pick Sheet



Sunday, October 20, 2024

Week 8 Recap & SP+ Betting Results

 πŸˆ  Week 8 College Football Recap🏈

Another incredible week of college football is behind us. I lost a ton of money and won slightly more (thanks Duke, Oregon, Indiana, SMU, Vanderbilt, Army and Purdue covering an alt. spread of 35.5), putting me in the green for the third straight week. The model won at a 56.9% rate, beating Vegas once again (chart below to show you its dominance). I'd also like to give a shoutout to Army and Navy for absolutely dominating the college football game while running an offense from 1964. 

Lets dive into the games that I was locked in on:

Indiana vs. Nebraska: What an absolute beatdown Indian put on the Huskers, who looked like a mediocre division 5 JV squad. While I think this Indiana story is fun, they haven't played anyone (wins against powerhouse FIU, Western IL, UCLA, Charlotte, Maryland, Northwestern, and now Nebraska. 

Texas vs. Georgia: Proof that fans throwing bottles on the field can get you a call. Makes you wonder why Jerimiah Smith was called on OPI vs. Oregon, but my bias is showing. Texas is still a very good team, as is Georgia. These are two of the four teams (Ohio State & Oregon) that legitimately have a chance at winning the CFP. Everyone else is just gathering a participation trophy. 

Tennessee vs. Alabama: Nico needed his bell rung and a trip to the locker room before he awoke from his coma and started playing good football again. For everyone who gave me πŸ’© for not putting Alabama in my pre-season playoff predictions... Hate to say I told you so. I don't actually hate it, but you get the point. 

Louisville vs. Miami: I have been an open hater on the ACC this season, and I promise you that it will continue. The defenses in this conference are soft. This was still an exciting game with 97 points scored. Imagine liking soccer with scores of 1-0 being the norm. 

Games With Spread Differential > 4

For the 16 games I highlighted with a spread differential greater than 4... 10 out of the 16 covered the spread. For those who can't do division in their heads (because you didn't graduate from an incredible academic & football institution like Vanderbilt), that's a 62.5% win rate. Will keep highlighting these anomalies in the data as I find them. 





Week 8 Pick Sheet W/ Results:



Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Week 8 College Football Picks

 

🏈  Week 8 College Football Picks πŸˆ

Pick Sheet: Located in the bottom of the post. We have 58 games this week with some meaningful conference match-ups:

BIG10: Indiana vs. Nebraska 

SEC:  Texas vs. Georgia, Tennessee vs. Alabama 

ACC: Louisville vs. Miami, Clemson vs. Virginia  

Dislocation; Last week, games with a spread differential greater than 4, won at a 75% rate. This week, we have 16 games with these characteristics. These are the most obvious places to park money given Vegas has not adjusted their line to match.. Or, Vegas knows something that I don't. Could be possible, but HIGHLY unlikely. 

Games With Spread Differential > 4

Using the Match-Up tool for Duke vs. Florida State:


Week 8 Pick Sheet

Gamble responsibly. Odds may be subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results, unless you're as sharp as me.  

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Week 7 Recap. SP+ Betting Results

 

🏈Week 7 Recap & SP+ Model Results 🏈

What a weekend of college football! My buckeyes unfortunately lost to Oregon at the last second (should have listened to my model and not my heart). LSU sneaks a win out vs. Ole Miss in what was a sneaky important game in the SEC and playoff picture. Penn State continued to limp through their schedule struggling with a 2-loss USC team. Texas showed why they are the #1 team in the country, and don't sleep on those nerds from Vanderbilt!

Let's dive into the data. The model picked every single game this week and hit at a 60.8% clipπŸ’°. Again, if you like beating Vegas, it may be time to start taking notice. 

 

Week 8 Predictions will be out soon. 

Match-up Data: Using row one as a guide (Liberty vs. FIU) 

Home/ Away: Home & Away team for the match-up. The green highlighted team is who the model is picking to cover the spread based on Differential and Home Line (below).  

Home/ Away SPS+: Encompasses an array of data all filtered into one metric. This number tells you how much better a given team is relative to the average college football team. For example, Through 7 weeks, Liberty is 3.3 points better than the average team and FIU is -15.6 (15.6 points worse than the average team).  

Differential: Calculates a match up based on SP+ (Home team SP+ - Away Team SP+). I additionally layer in 3 points for home field advantage as this is what long-term data would tell you about college football games. Using the first column below, the model says that Liberty should beat FIU by 21.9 points. ex: 3.3 (-) -15.6 + 3 

Home Line: Looks at the home team spread. At the time was Liberty -19.5 favorites.

Spread Differential: Takes the SP+ Differential and subtracts the Vegas line to make the pick. ex: 21.9 (-)  -19.5 = 2.4. This tells you that the model believes that Liberty has 2.4 points of cushion vs. the spread, meaning they will cover it. 

Result: Did the model pick correctly based on the outcome of the scores. 


Sunday, October 6, 2024

Week 7 College Football SP+ Model

🏈 College Football Week 7 SP+ Model Predictions Against The Spread πŸˆ:

How To Read: The Differential tab will tell you how each game is predicted to end based on a teams SP+ score vs. its opponent. 

For Example: Liberty is Hosting FIU on Tuesday Night. Liberty's SP+ score is +3.3, meaning they are 3.3 points than the average college football team. FIU's SP+ score is -15.6, meaning they are 15.6 points worse than the average college football team. The differential between the SP+ scores is calculated by taking the home team SP+ (-) Away Team SP+ and adjusting for 3 additional points for home field advantage. Formula: 3.3 (-) -15.6 + 3 = 21.9. According to SP+, Liberty should win this game by 21.9 points. The existing point spread on FanDuel is Liberty -19.5. Given Liberty should beat this spread by 2.4 points, the pick is Liberty.   

Another Example: Jacksonville State (SP+ of -11.5) should beat New Mexico State by 12.8 points. The current FanDuel spread is -19.5. Thus, New Mexico State should cover this spread and they have 6.7 points worth of coverage.

I am planning to track all games this week where I could find an opening line. I will post the results of this prediction model next Sunday(10/13). Last week's sample set of data hit at a 58.6% clip (results below). 

SP+ Rankings

What is SP+?

Vegas Spreads are subject to change. Gamble at your own risk. 


Week 6 Prediction Results